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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 07/02 12:00
Continued Cattle Market Pressure Seen Thursday
Pressure is seen in cattle futures Thursday morning, allowing for additional
concern about further market weakness during early July. Lean hog futures are
mixed, although trade volume remains limited.
Rick Kment
DTN Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Livestock futures appear to be casually coasting into the long holiday
weekend with the same lackluster interest seen through the previous few days.
Cattle futures continue to hold moderate to firm losses, trading $1 to $2 per
cwt lower in all nearby live and feeder cattle contracts. The hope that buyer
interest would redevelop after the first of the month has so far not proven
out. But now the focus seems to be on potential buyer support early next week
once holiday schedules are cleared and trade activity returns to a more normal
routine. The Fourth of July holiday trade nearly always creates some volume
disruptions in the market given how the holiday falls each year during the
week, combined with summer vacation schedules. Lean hog futures seem to be
showing limited signs of buyer interest during the morning trade, although at
this point, anything except sharp nearly limit gains would still be considered
minimal given the recent market pressure through the complex. December corn is
up 3/4 at $4.43 and December soybean meal is up $0.70 at $305.4. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is up 352.58 at 52,657.82.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures are showing additional end-of-week weakness with late
2026 and early 2027 contracts holding losses at or near $2 per cwt at midday
Thursday. Market apathy continues due to very light trade volume during the
holiday week, as well as little to no new fundamental or technical market
factors developing Thursday. All nearby contracts are now trading below the
$240 per cwt threshold, which could create an additional barrier for the market
in the next couple of weeks. Trade is expected to remain sluggish within the
current daily trading range through the rest of the session as traders prepare
for the long holiday weekend. Futures markets are closed Friday, with a normal
schedule for Monday, potentially bringing back additional volume and interest.
Cash cattle trade is starting to become more active through the morning
Thursday. It is expected both sides will attempt to wrap things up before the
end of the day, heading into the long holiday weekend with enough business done
for next week's needs. Light to moderate trade is being reported in Kansas and
Nebraska at fully steady money with Wednesday's business. A few additional bids
are also on the table in those areas. A light trade was reported in most areas
Wednesday. Northern dressed deals took place at mostly $403 -- $5 lower than
last week's weighted averages. Southern live deals came in at $255, $3 lower
than the prior week's weighted averages. August live cattle are $1.45 lower at
$240.375, October live cattle are $1.05 lower at $235.675, December live cattle
are $0.98 lower at $235.60. Boxed beef prices are Mixed: choice down $3.61
($387.65) and select down $0.49 ($369.20) with a movement of 58.30 loads (42.05
loads of choice, 4.03 loads of select, 6.23 loads of trim and 5.99 loads of
ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle futures continue to erode lower Thursday, despite hope that
traders would try to square positions at the end of the week following strong
market pressure during the entire week. With front-month futures falling over
$10 per cwt in the last week, the concern is additional market pressure may
develop despite continued focus on tight supplies and overall expectations that
domestic beef demand will remain strong in the upcoming months. Very limited
market interest is seen in a feeder cattle complex that is hard pressed to be
actively traded in a normal week. The expectation that additional volume will
return to the market early next week could bring about additional volatility to
the feeder cattle market Monday. August feeders are $1.45 lower at $362.7,
September feeders are $1.35 lower at $360.825 and October feeders are $1.80
lower at $357.50.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures are the bright spot of the livestock complex Thursday
morning, but only because nearby trade is holding prices in positive territory,
compared to moderate to strong losses developing in cattle trade. Little to no
additional fundamental or technical shifts have developed in late-week trade as
traders prepare more for the long holiday weekend than any other factor at this
point. August futures are leading the complex higher with a $1.52 per cwt gain,
but the August complex also has significantly lower market volume than
surrounding contracts. This light volume adds to uncertainty about how
substantial the late-week gains are and whether this support can hold early
next week when additional trade volume enters the market. July lean hogs are
$0.40 higher at $93.75, August lean hogs are $1.28 higher at $98.325 and
October lean hogs are $0.38 higher at $81.875. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $1.37 with a weighted average of $95.79,
ranging from $94.00 to $98.00 on 715 head with a five-day rolling average of
$96.98. Pork cutouts totaled 132.27 loads with 118.40 loads of pork cuts and
13.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.12 at $95.63.
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