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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/12 11:57
Traders Keep an Arm's Distance from Livestock Contracts at Midday Friday
Weaker tones are currently dominating the livestock complex, as traders
appear apprehensive about taking action in the market today.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's been a lethargic, slow trading day for the livestock complex as the
markets struggle to entice traders to support the contracts today actively. A
few more cash cattle sales have been reported, but largely it's looking like
the bulk of this week's trade is done. December corn is up 1 1/4 cents per
bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
is down 213.56 points and the NASDAQ is up 93.40 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle contracts are back to trading lower as the market neglects
to see the support it needs to continue to drive prices higher. But with cash
prices trending lower this week, and boxed beef prices seasonally softening as
well, it's not bewildering to see the markets weaker again. October live cattle
are down $1.72 at $230.55, December live cattle are down $1.50 at $232.62 and
February live cattle are down $1.25 at $234.00. It will be interesting to see
if traders are able to keep the spot October contract above the market's 40-day
moving average, as it's currently just $0.02 above the threshold. If the market
happens to close below that price point, more downward pressure could come.
This week, the North has been moving cattle since Tuesday, with a range of
$373 to $382, mostly $375 to $378, $5 to $8 lower than last week's weighted
averages. Just a handful moved in Kansas yesterday at $235 to $238, $4 to $7
lower than the prior week's weighted average.
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets for
2025. Beef production for 2025 is expected to decline by 100 million pounds as
both fed and non-fed slaughter speeds are expected to continue to decline
through the year's end. The projected quarterly steer prices were bullish for
the market as steers in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $240
($2.00 higher from last month), steers in the fourth quarter of 2025 are
expected to average $244 (up $4.00), steers in the first quarter of 2026 are
expected to average $246 (up $5.00 from last month) and steers in the second
quarter of 2026 are expected to average $248 (up $5.00 from last month). Beef
imports for 2025 increased by 90 million pounds as the demand for lean
processing beef is still high, but beef exports for 2025 decreased by 40
million pounds amid thin supplies and historically high prices.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.30 ($400.49) and select down
$1.68 ($378.27) with a movement of 92 loads (73.03 loads of choice, 6.49 loads
of select, 6.99 loads of trim and 5.85 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is again trading lower as the market struggles to
find stable support today in the futures complex. September feeder cattle are
down $2.72 at $352.50, October feeders are down $3.90 at $348.32 and November
feeders are down $4.67 at $345.80. Not helping matters either is the fact that
fed cash cattle prices are trading lower and boxed beef prices are softer,
which has put a lower waning attitude across all of the marketplace.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is struggling to find upward momentum, as the market
ran past resistance on Thursday but isn't finding enough support in the
market's sphere today to push any higher. October lean hogs are down $1.12 at
$97.05, December lean hogs are down $0.42 at $88.85 and February lean hogs are
down $0.10 at $90.47. One may point to the uptick in pork cutout values on
today's midday report as a reason why the hog contracts should be higher, but
traders seem to find the technical resistance as more of a limiting factor.
The projected lean hog index for 9/11/2025 is up $0.10 at $106.14, and the
actual index for 9/10/2025 is up $0.10 at $106.04. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.68 with a weighted average price of
$103.96, ranging from $101.00 to $108.00 on 1,920 head and a five-day rolling
average of $106.85. Pork cutouts total 255.82 loads with 218.32 loads of pork
cuts and 37.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.68, $114.85.
Friday's WASDE report shared mostly supportive news for the hog and pork
markets for 2025. Pork production for 2025 fell by 180 million pounds as
processing speeds are expected to trend lower through the end of the year, and
dressed weights have declined as well. The quarterly price projections for 2025
and 2026 were supportive as well, hogs in the third quarter of 2025 are
expected to average $77 (unchanged from last month), hogs in the fourth quarter
of 2025 are expected to average $69 (up $2.00 from last month), hogs in the
first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $65 (up $1.00 from last month)
and hogs in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $70 (up $1.00
from last month). Pork imports for 2025 are unchanged from last month, and pork
exports for 2025 fell by 20 million pounds.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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