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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/10 11:38
Traders Send Livestock Contracts Higher with Strong Export Demand
A few Northern dressed deals have been marked at $296, but Southern live
cattle haven't traded yet although bids of $186 are currently being offered.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading fully higher into Thursday's noon hour as
traders have taken note of the day's strong export sales report and are
thankful to see the continued demand. A few Northern sales have been reported
at $296, and bids of $186 are currently being offered in the South but no live
sales have been reported yet. December corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and
December soybean meal is down $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down
23.34 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 13,700 mt for 2024
were down 39% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average. The
three primary buyers were China (4,200 mt), Japan (3,500 mt) and South Korea
(1,500 mt). Pork net sales of 50,600 mt for 2024 were up 17% from the previous
week and 56% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were
Mexico (27,200 mt), Japan (7,200 mt) and South Korea (3,900 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
I'm somewhat surprised to see that some Northern cattle have already been
sold for $296, which is fully steady with last week's weighted average. One
would logically think that with boxed beef prices higher and the board trading
in a supportive manner, feedlot managers would be inclined to wait to market
their cattle until Friday in hopes of seeing prices advance another $1.00 to
$2.00 higher. But at this point, only around 1,000 head of cattle have sold in
the North which means that there's still a chance that prices could turn higher
by Friday if the rest of the market holds out. Bids are currently being offered
in the South at $186, which is $2.00 lower than feedlots' asking price of $188.
October live cattle are up $0.52 at $188.67, December live cattle are up $0.77
at $188.00 and February live cattle are up $0.55 at $188.75.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.44 ($309.62) and select up $1.80
($290.43) with a movement of 71 loads (40.11 loads of choice, 23.83 loads of
select, zero loads of trim and 6.59 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is back to trading higher and, low and behold, the
spot November feeder cattle contract is even trading above its 100-day moving
average again. So long as the live cattle contracts continue to trade in a
stronger manner, it's likely that feeders will be able to keep their momentum
through the day's end given that fundamental support from sales in the
countryside remains strong for both calves and feeders. October feeders are up
$0.45 at $249.72, November feeders are up $0.85 at $249.52 and January feeders
are up $0.70 at $246.57.
LEAN HOGS:
Thursday's export report was a breath of fresh air for the hog complex as
traders desperately needed to see some demand. Upon seeing export sales up
sharply compared to a week ago, the lean hog complex is trading fully higher
into Thursday's noon hour which puts the spot December contract nearing
resistance again. December lean hogs are up $1.47 at $77.05, February lean hogs
are up $1.00 at $80.45 and April lean hogs are up $0.50 at $84.47.
The projected lean hog index for 10/9/2024 is steady at $84.47, and the
actual index for 10/8/2024 is up $0.25 at $84.47. Hog prices are unavailable on
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see
that only 1,752 head have traded, and that the market's five-day rolling
average now sits at $75.52. Pork cutouts total 219.58 loads with 198.85 loads
of pork cuts and 20.73 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.35, $94.85.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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